When Housing Prices Will Drop: Experts Weigh In
(MoneyForAgents.com) – Home prices are persistently hovering near record highs, with little relief in sight. Here's what you should know about home prices and the market that has created them.
Talking about dropping home prices can cause panic for almost any homeowner. Most individuals consider their property their single most significant investment.
Thus, any threat to it naturally causes them to feel anxious.
There has been relatively little nationwide reduction in housing market activity since the peak of home prices in 2022. The second half of 2022 saw a sharp price decline, but they began a steady recovery in March of this year.
The U.S. New Housing Market Index shows that as of July 2023, the median home price was $422,000, 2% less than the peak of $431,000 in May 2022.
But compared to July 2022's $413,000, year-over-year statistics show a very slight 2% increase in price.
Although there may be occasional fluctuations from month to month, there isn't a discernible decline in house prices.
"In most markets nationwide, I do not anticipate a significant decline in home prices," stated Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at multiple listing service Bright MLS.
She added, "Demand has been strong despite high mortgage rates, and inventory is still very low."
While several factors contribute to these consistently high prices, Sturtevant explicitly mentions the shortage of available homes, the high percentage of first-time homeowners, and the record equity retained by repeat buyers.
In the end, prices won't decrease only because of competition if there are few residences available and many buyers who can purchase them.
We're breaking down the various price decreases, declines, and decelerations you may hear about, along with what this means for home prices now and in the future, to help you better comprehend the facts.
What Does It Mean When Prices Drop?
There are several possible interpretations for the term "dropping home prices." Describe the possible kind of price drop that it is:
The listing agent and seller will discuss lowering the asking price of a house if it is sitting on the market and not drawing any attention.
Larger-scale listing price reductions indicate that a seller's market that was previously tight is becoming less competitive and may even be shifting in favor of buyers.
According to Redfin data, just 18.4% of houses had listing price reductions in August 2023, a decrease from 20.2% in August 2022 and even less than the peak of 21.7% in October 2022.
Longer median days on the market are frequently correlated with reductions in listing prices. Homes across the country were on the market for an average of 29 days in July 2023, compared to 21 days in July 2022.
Slowdown in the rise in sale prices.
Though they are increasing far more slowly than a year ago, home sale prices are still higher in some cities.
According to Redfin data, a home's median sales price peaked in May 2022 at $434,780, a notable increase of 15.4% from May 2021's $376,634. But prices remained unchanged from May 2022 to August 2023, falling just 3.2% to $420,846.
Monthly drops in the price of homes.
Dropping month-to-month pricing if, for example, the August median home sale price was less than the July median.
However, month-to-month figures are sometimes considered too unpredictable to show shifting trends unless placed within a larger framework due to the housing market's predominantly seasonal character.
If the August 2023 median house sale price was less than the August 2022 median price, there has been a year-over-year decrease in the median price.
Do house prices see a decline?
The price of homes has climbed very slightly nationally year over year. Still, month after month, it is beginning to level out. According to Redfin data, the sale price in August 2023 was $420,846, representing a 3% rise in value over the same period in 2022.
Closed listing prices increased by just 0.22% month over month.
The sale-to-list price is still 99.9% and hasn't altered in a year, despite 18.4% of properties having reduced their costs in August 2023.
This is probably because of the continuous shortage of available housing inventory.
This indicates that instead of attempting to enter the market with somewhat lower offers, as is sometimes the case in a buyer's market, buyers are offering sellers precisely what they're asking for their houses.
"We're seeing houses listed and sold pretty close to their listing price," said Chris Stroud, chief research officer at HouseCanary and co-founder.
He added, "Sellers are unwilling to give up low rates and sell their homes at a discount, so cuts are coming down significantly."
Redfin reports that the median days on the market in August 2023 grew by just 4 days from the previous year to 30 days.
Although there has been a notable increase from the July 2021 low of 15 days, the median days on the market remain lower than any point between August 2018 and August 2020.
The continuous shortage is to blame for this.
There were 2,361,948 homes listed in the U.S. as of August 2018; however, this number has been falling for years.
As of August 2023, there were only 1,514,235 homes listed, a 35% loss over the previous five years and an 18.6% decline year over year.
Over five years, the median sales price of homes increased by 47.5%, from $285,252 in August 2018 to $420,846 in August 2018. However, many believe this growth rate cannot be sustained.
Stroud states, "Prices are still close to all-time highs, and mortgage rates are at multidecade highs."
Given these two issues, he added, "There isn't much potential for home values to rise shortly. However, if the market were to become oversupplied with goods, there is a chance that prices may decline in the future."
Where are the drops in home prices?
Even though it appeared that home prices might drop earlier this year, things had significantly improved by August 2023, when the most recent sales data was available.
Not only were prices not declining continuously, but many had begun to rise again.
Redfin claims there haven't been any regular price reductions in cities with the largest predicted outward migration, including San Francisco, New York City, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C., and Louisville, Kentucky.
In August 2023, 26.3% fewer residences were sold in San Francisco than the previous year. Still, prices increased by 6% over that same period.
Even though the number of homes sold in New York City decreased by 18.2%, there was still a slight decline in sales prices—just 0.61%.
Even though the number of residences sold decreased by 4.5%, Los Angeles saw 0.4% growth. Therefore, the city hardly made a dent in the data.
Washington, D.C., is the only location in the top five for outbound migration that has had any actual reduction in home prices; in August 2023, prices fell 3.5% year over year, and sales fell 8.3% year over year.
Even in Louisville, Kentucky, where home sales have decreased by 14.2%, the median sales price has increased by 4.2%.
According to RE/MAX president and CEO Nick Bailey, recent statistics revealed similar results, with almost little change in the most falling markets.
Bailey stated, "According to the RE/MAX National Housing Report for August, out of the 50 markets we pulled, the ones with the biggest year-over-year decrease in median sales price were Salt Lake City, Utah, at -3.7%; Phoenix, Arizona, at -2.6%; and Portland, Oregon, at -1.7%."
What Is Going to Happen Next to Home Prices?
There's no telling what the real estate market will do next because so many variables are at play.
It is challenging to project future prices due to various factors that have produced a market that is distinct from others we have encountered.
"The leading causes of high real estate prices," according to Bailey, "are demand, rising interest rates, and a shortage of inventory."
He added, "90% of individuals are thought to have interest rates under 5%, with half of those rates being less than 3.5%."
"Consequently, those prospective buyers of higher-quality residences remain inactive and do not list their properties for sale. Furthermore, new building isn't happening quickly enough," he said.
One of the few things slowing down increases in home values is that many homeowners have chosen not to sell at this time to avoid taking on a higher mortgage interest rate for the property they would purchase.
Sturtevant states, "Many current homeowners have meager mortgage rates and have not been incentivized to sell."
He added, "However, some people will have to move and sell their homes due to changes in their lives or careers. This fall, when people have to swallow the bitter pill of taking on a higher mortgage rate, listing activity should pick up a little."
Sturtevant continued, "A crucial cutoff point for homeowners is set at 6%. We might witness an upsurge in listing activity as rates reach 6%. But it's conceivable that 6% won't appear until mid-2024."
Redfin CEO explains why the housing market is taking a beating:
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